Baccarat Probabilities & House Edge Reference
Exact standard eight-deck outcome probabilities and the expected cost of Banker, Player and Tie bets.
For standard eight-deck baccarat, Banker wins about 45.8597%, Player about 44.6247%, and ties about 9.5156%. With 5% Banker commission and an 8:1 Tie payout, the house edge is about 1.06% Banker, 1.24% Player and 14.36% Tie.
Eight-deck reference
| Outcome / bet | Probability | Standard payout assumption | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker wins | 45.8597% | Banker bet pays 0.95:1 | 1.0579% |
| Player wins | 44.6247% | Player bet pays 1:1 | 1.2351% |
| Tie | 9.5156% | Tie bet pays 8:1 | 14.3596% |
Why Banker wins more often
The fixed third-card drawing rules are asymmetric. Banker has a small structural probability advantage, which is why conventional baccarat charges commission on winning Banker bets.
Ties push main bets
On standard Banker and Player wagers, a tie normally pushes rather than loses. The quoted house-edge figures count ties as zero-return events for that wager.
Payout changes matter
A Tie payout of 9:1 has materially different economics from 8:1. Commission-free Banker variants also need their own rule-specific analysis.